The Boxing Diary

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Friday, October 12, 2012

Nonito Donaire vs. Toshiaki Nishioka: Prediction/Analysis

Photo via Google Images
Once again I will breakdown my prediction and analysis of the fight between Nonito ‘The Filipino Flash’ and the Japanese super bantamweight champion Toshiaki Nishioka for the WBO world title.

I watch again the fight between Toshiaki Nishioka and Rafael Marquez on replay. I noticed that Nishioka is successful with his right jab, straight left combo that landed in the head and body of Marquez.

Before I go on further let me set the scene on that fight. Marquez is the orthodox while Nishioka is the southpaw fighter. So, Nishioka's lead foot is his right while Marquez is his left. In this kind of matchup the fighter that would create better attacking opportunity is the one that can position his lead foot outside the lead foot of his opponent while throwing his left hand for the lefty and the right hand for the righty in the middle.

Nishioka was the fighter who did this every time he launches attack on Marquez.  Nishioka did this by stepping his lead foot outside Marquez’s lead foot while throwing his right jab followed by his left straight either to Marquez’s body or head and then circle to his right (Marquez’s own left side).

With this move, Nishioka was able to land those punches while evading Marquez's counter right hand which is his power hand. Marquez reacted to this move by pivoting his back foot to the right finding Nishioka towards his left and firing his own punches which is by then Nishioka will disengage smartly, circling away to the opposite direction (clockwise) to let Marquez follow him towards his left.

Then again Nishioka will repeat the same maneuver. To neutralize this move is to throw a counter left hook. Which happen to be the money punch of Donaire.

Therefore, if Nishioka will apply the same tactic to Donaire; he will be eating that left hook all night. However, Donaire must keep his right hand pasted to his right chin because Nishioka’s left also will be there after that right jab. Although the left hook will travel faster, Nishioka will be beaten by the punch.

In Donaires’s previous fight, I saw some flaws that might be seen also in this fight. After he scored a knockdown against Mathebula, he is hunting for that single lights-out-punch that never happen. He become too eager to land that shot and was so impatient. Donaire started to showboat when Mathebula also connects. That only means to me that he is desperate for that knockout. Nishioka may utilize this kind of immaturity to his advantage.

Nishioka is a veteran fighter—experience might be in his side. I expect that Nishioka will adjust his game plan on this fight especially if Donaire’s left hook will start to find its spot. What adjustment he will do is very exciting to watch.

One more thing that interests me also is Donaire’s versatility to switch from right to left stance. One way or the other it will confuse Nishioka.

I see Donaire being too fast and has the skill set to win unanimously in 12 rounds.

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