The Boxing Diary

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Showing posts with label Prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prediction. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Timothy Bradley vs. Juan Manuel Marquez Preview and Prediction













The battle of Manny Pacquiao tormentors will be on 12 October 2013 at the Thomas and Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada for the world welterweight title.

Juan Manuel Marquez (welterweight TBRB rank no. 2), will return to the ring to face Timothy Bradley (welterweight TBRB rank no. 4), after a spectacular knockout victory, in November of last year, over arch-rival, Filipino boxing icon, Manny Pacquiao.

Marquez 55-6-1 (KO 40), ended the rivalry of his long time nemesis with exclamation point. Marquez knocked Pacquiao out, with a big right hand, sending Pacquiao face-first to the floor with a second remaining in the sixth round.

Bradley, another Pacquiao tormentor, will climb the ring against Marquez, coming off a thrilling victory in March over Russian banger, Ruslan Provodnikov. Bradley defeated Pacquiao in paper, rather than in actual combat; awarded by a split decision victory of what has been considered as the most controversial decision in recent memory of boxing.

Judge C.J. Ross scored the bout, a mind-puzzling, 115-113 for Bradley. Ross is the same judge that scored 114-114, a draw, for Mayweather-Alvarez 'The One' fight card on 14 September. Ross made a self-imposed leave of absence from judging boxing after ‘The One’ controversy.

Going back to Bradley-Marquez fight; I think the winner of this fight will be Pacquiao's potential opponent in a rematch; after of course, if Pacquiao, will get past Mexican-American brawler, Brandon Rios in November. A Pacquiao rematch to either Bradley or Marquez is more feasible because they are all under Top Rank.

At an advance age, Marquez continues to explode like dynamite in every fight. I predicted Marquez to lose his 4th fight with Pacquiao. But the 'Dinamita' unleashed a deafening explosion that was heard in the four corners of the boxing world. It was really shocking. Some doubted as to how Marquez, 39 years old at that time, did it to Pacquiao.

A doubt, that Bradley even threatened that, "If this guy [Marquez] doesn't get drug tested at all by VADA or USADA then the fight's not going to happen." Bradley said.

What a big doubt, is it?

Well, Top Rank boss, Bob Arum managed to convince Bradley to go on with NSAC—not VADA or USADA.

Now, after a long introduction, let me breakdown Bradley vs. Marquez.

I consider Marquez as one of the most intelligent fighter in the sport, along with Floyd May weather Jr. and Bernard Hopkins. The Mexican veteran is a thinking fighter and excellent counter-puncher inside the ring. He can use opponent's aggressiveness to his advantage--ask Pacquiao.

I do not expect Marquez to show something different here rather than what he usually does, which is to counter... counter... and counter. Well, JMM is JMM, he will do exactly what a JMM should do.

It is with Bradley, whom I am excited to see, not just one but several approach to this fight. Bradley is famous to find ways to outwork his opponent. In his fight with Pacquiao, he tried to match speed with speed in the early rounds. He then realized that yes; he could match Pacquiao's speed, but not Pacquiao’s power. So, he tried another approach: which is to hit without getting hit. He tried to outbox Pacquiao, keep himself busy with the jab and moving around in the later rounds. That could have kept him earning the judges’ scorecards.

Fighting with Marquez, I think Bradley will try to be the aggressor in the first three rounds because Marquez is a slow starter. I see Bradley winning these rounds. Then, Marquez will start catching him up in the fourth and fifth round with crisp and precise counters. Bradley will then switch to boxing. In this approach, I’m afraid the fight could become boring. Maybe in the sixth until the tenth round, there will be lesser activity. Remember that: Marquez will not open up as much, if his opponent will not throw more. See Mayweather-Marquez. I feel that these rounds could be given by the judges either way.

Not unless, Marquez will realize that Bradley really don't have enough power in his punches. And opening up a little bit more is worth the risk. Well, I’m in doubt if Marquez will shift to being the aggressor once Bradley will go back a little deeper to his shell.

Then, I think in the championship round Bradley will go back to the offensive. He will then close the gap and work more the way he did with Devon Alexander, because Marquez, at 40 years old, might tire and may not have enough power to catch him with a single punch. This is where I believe Bradley’s third-hand played its role--the head-butt. You know Bradley's tendency. Will I hope Bradley's trademark head-butt will not be a factor here.

Larry Merchant commented on Bradley-Alexander fight: "It was another head-butt from Bradley that turned out to be the lethal fight-ending punch."

My final verdict:

I pick Bradley to win via unanimous or a majority decision.


What do you think Bradley vs Marquez outcome?






Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Danny Garcia vs. Lucas Matthysse Prediction and Analysis


Aside from the possible biggest fight of all time in boxing; that’s the fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Saul Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night, Sept 14, I am also excited about the undercard. And that is the fight between Transnational Boxing Ranking Board number one fighter Lucas Matthysse and number two, Danny Garcia, in the junior welterweight division.


I believe that Garcia vs. Matthysse will outshine the main event in terms of action and fireworks. That in case Mayweather refuses to engage Canelo and sticks on pure boxing, which I believe he will (read my prediction here).Danny Garcia 26-0 (KO 16), is a young undefeated fighter who has decent power in both hands, especially his left hook. Garcia was able to register wins against highly regarded or shall I say overhyped Amir Khan and former champions Zab Judah and Mexican legend Erik Morales (although Garcia fought them when they were clearly past their prime).However, when Garcia fought Khan, although not past his prime (Khan) but was coming in from a knockout loss against Lamont Peterson and vowed to come back strong.

Garcia was the underdog when he fights Amir Khan. Amir Khan’s speed and decent boxing skills was expected to overwhelm Garcia. But Garcia’s well-timed counter shots negate Khan’s speed advantage. Garcia’s counter left hook find its mark on Khan’s crystal chin. It took only four rounds for Garcia to stopped Khan for the third time in his (Khan) career.

In the opposite corner against Garcia comes Saturday night is Lucas Matthysse 34-2 (KO 32), a boxing dynamo, which has the aggression that I can compare with Manny Pacquiao’s aggression inside the ring. Matthysse is an all out action fighter who has a good left hook too. A cliché that says “don’t hook with a hooker”, in boxing, trainers said that don’t throw a hook if your opponent’s specialty is the left hook. I am excited to see whose left hook will beat the other.

Many boxing scribes have been writing off Garcia coming into this fight. But I believe that this is a 50/50; even fight. I assume that experts believed that Matthysse has more power. But Garcia said that, “Matthysse has power but I have power, too. I fought a lot of guys with power. Trust me, I plan to take away his power, make him miss and make him pay.”

I believed what he said. The kid can punch and his previous opponents that went down with that hook, didn’t saw it coming. And that is the one that really hurt.

But talking about power, Garcia can not deny that fact that Matthysse's 34 wins came with 32 by way of stoppage--that's a stunning 86.49 percent. Only two of his opponents went to the distance.

Going further into the stats by looking at the tale of the tape; Garcia has the height advantage at 5’81/2” to Matthysse’s 5’61/2”. Both have the same reach at 68”.

My prediction:
I bet on Garcia to knockout Matthysse in the middle rounds. Garcia might be overwhelmed in the early going but is able to weather the storm and continue to fight using more angles and catching Matthysse with precise counter left hooks. Garcia’s keys will be his improve defensive skills, max out height advantage and well-timed counters.

Stats used based on Boxrec.com.

Friday, August 23, 2013

Abner Mares vs. Jhonny Gonzalez: Preview and Prediction





On Aug. 24, Saturday night (10:30 p.m. ET/PT), featherweight champion Abner Mares will defend his title against former two-division champion, Jhonny Gonzalez in StubHub Center, Carson, California, USA, for another all-Mexican war in the squared circle. The fight will be aired on Showtime.

Undefeated Abner Mares, 26-0-1 (KO 14) is coming off from another impressive knockout victory against hard-hitting fellow Mexican Daniel Ponce De Leon. Mares in his fight with De Leon proved that he can box—not just roughhouse opponent. Although De Leon is not a technically sound fighter, Mares shown versatility, at least.



What I like about Mares is: he can beat every style of fighter you will put in front of him. He always finds a way to win. In finding ways to win, Mares has a tendency to use out-of-the-rule-book tactics—this is what I don’t like, especially when Mares use illegal blows. Anselmo Moreno, who is a pure boxer had the advantage to win (style wise) but lost a UD to Mares because of the rough-housing. Abner Mares was able to pull Moreno to fight his fight. And did not give the distance needed for a boxer like Moreno to be effective.

Now, I am intrigue as to what kind of fight-plan Mares will use against a guy who paid him to spar seven years ago? Will Mares tries to outbox or roughhouse Gonzalez?

Jhonny Gonzalez 54-8 (KO 46) hired Abner Mares as one of his chief sparring partners during his failed campaign at 122-pounds against Israel Vazquez in 2006.

Gonzalez, is coming off from a win against little known Japanese contender that he demolished in just four rounds. He is 2-1 in his last three fights. He lost the same title he once held, which he will try to recapture from Mares, from Daniel Ponce De Leon. So, if you will look at it; Gonzalez was defeated by a man who was knockout by Mares. But it doesn’t mean that it will be easy for Mares.

Gonzales has several advantages going into this fight. At 31, and having a total of 62 fights, Gonzalez is the experienced fighter. He is also has the height and reach advantage. At 5’7”, Gonzalez is three inches taller than Mares who stands at 5’4”. Gonzalez also had three inches reach advantage and is crucial for an outside fight, which I believe will be his game-plan against Mares—to fight from the outside. Gonzalez, capitalizing his height and reach advantages with his experience plus his vaunted power will be a difficult task for Mares to overcome.

My prediction
Gonzalez will try to move around and use his above advantages. He fights from outside using his jab to keep the shorter Mares at a striking distance but in a difficult position to counter. Gonzalez will try to score on points and will pick his power shots in hope for a knockout.

On the other end, I feel that Mares will choose to outbox Gonzalez in the early rounds, which is not a good idea fighting a taller opponent. I feel he is incline to use his boxing skills in the early rounds like what he did against De Leon rather than the style he used against Moreno. He was criticized badly on that.

However, he will realize that out boxing Gonzalez is not really a good idea. In the middle rounds, I think Mares will get nasty and will frustrate Gonzalez. I think this will be a sort of plan B  (to close in, to level Gonzalez’s advantages) Mares will use every rough-housing he employed against Moreno that might result in point deductions. A penalty for low-blow and hugging are inevitable. But down the stretch, Gonzalez, due to accumulation of body shots he took, will wear and tire and Mares will knock him out.