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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Danny Garcia vs. Lucas Matthysse Prediction and Analysis

Aside from the possible biggest fight of all time in boxing; that’s the fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Saul Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night, Sept 14, I am also excited about the undercard. And that is the fight between Transnational Boxing Ranking Board number one fighter Lucas Matthysse and number two, Danny Garcia, in the junior welterweight division.

I believe that Garcia vs. Matthysse will outshine the main event in terms of action and fireworks. That in case Mayweather refuses to engage Canelo and sticks on pure boxing, which I believe he will (read my prediction here).Danny Garcia 26-0 (KO 16), is a young undefeated fighter who has decent power in both hands, especially his left hook. Garcia was able to register wins against highly regarded or shall I say overhyped Amir Khan and former champions Zab Judah and Mexican legend Erik Morales (although Garcia fought them when they were clearly past their prime).However, when Garcia fought Khan, although not past his prime (Khan) but was coming in from a knockout loss against Lamont Peterson and vowed to come back strong.

Garcia was the underdog when he fights Amir Khan. Amir Khan’s speed and decent boxing skills was expected to overwhelm Garcia. But Garcia’s well-timed counter shots negate Khan’s speed advantage. Garcia’s counter left hook find its mark on Khan’s crystal chin. It took only four rounds for Garcia to stopped Khan for the third time in his (Khan) career.

In the opposite corner against Garcia comes Saturday night is Lucas Matthysse 34-2 (KO 32), a boxing dynamo, which has the aggression that I can compare with Manny Pacquiao’s aggression inside the ring. Matthysse is an all out action fighter who has a good left hook too. A cliché that says “don’t hook with a hooker”, in boxing, trainers said that don’t throw a hook if your opponent’s specialty is the left hook. I am excited to see whose left hook will beat the other.

Many boxing scribes have been writing off Garcia coming into this fight. But I believe that this is a 50/50; even fight. I assume that experts believed that Matthysse has more power. But Garcia said that, “Matthysse has power but I have power, too. I fought a lot of guys with power. Trust me, I plan to take away his power, make him miss and make him pay.”

I believed what he said. The kid can punch and his previous opponents that went down with that hook, didn’t saw it coming. And that is the one that really hurt.

But talking about power, Garcia can not deny that fact that Matthysse's 34 wins came with 32 by way of stoppage--that's a stunning 86.49 percent. Only two of his opponents went to the distance.

Going further into the stats by looking at the tale of the tape; Garcia has the height advantage at 5’81/2” to Matthysse’s 5’61/2”. Both have the same reach at 68”.

My prediction:
I bet on Garcia to knockout Matthysse in the middle rounds. Garcia might be overwhelmed in the early going but is able to weather the storm and continue to fight using more angles and catching Matthysse with precise counter left hooks. Garcia’s keys will be his improve defensive skills, max out height advantage and well-timed counters.

Stats used based on

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